Up until last year, I approached previewing the ACC football season in a rather strange way. I picked the winner of all 96 games. Of course, if you ever went back and actually graded my picks, I'm sure I'd fall below the Mendoza Line, but it gave me the chance to write about the thing that interested me about each team without being riveted to a specific format. And I always enjoyed seeing what records I came up with at the end.

I no longer have the time to do so, and I'm leaving to spend Labor Day weekend doing a pretty hellish run as soon as I finish this post. (Don't worry, the laptop comes along.) But there's no reason not to look at the first week of the schedule is there?

Let's get one thing out of the way at the start. D1-AA opponents are not worthy of our attention, unless UNC is involved or someone loses. So those nine (nine!) games will not be mentioned here. Come talk to us when you have a real team across the line of scrimmage from you.

Virginia Tech vs. Boise State: Far be it for me to say an ill word about Virginia Tech – I typically spill my ill words for them in bunches of 500 or more – but few teams have as many slow starts to the season as the Hokies. Their past two seasons have started with losses to Alabama (Respectable!)  and East Carolina (Less so!), but the problem goes back further. They only put up 17 points in a 2007 win of ECU, barely squeaked by N.C. State in '05, and lost to Southern Cal to kick off '04. Now the recent losses have a one thing in common. Both years the Hokies were breaking in completely green running backs in Ryan Williams and Darrell Evans; this season both are back and experienced. Of course, they also have Tyrod Taylor, whose never been as good as everyone likes to think he is, a very inexperienced defense and a receiving corps that still pretty young, if not as young as UNC's. There's a reason VT is the lower ranked team here.

Navy at Maryland: This, oddly enough, maybe one of the most pivotal ACC non-conference games of the season. On one side you have the Terps, who hit rock bottom last season and if they want any chance of saving Ralph Friedgen's job need to contend and contend well this year. On the other Navy, in their third season removed from Paul Johnson and now shedding most of their Johnson-recruited players. That means all of their starting linebackers, starting running game, and most the offensive line. Maryland has a lot more coming back, but looks to be really weak in the secondary, and that's where they'll probably get burned. It won't be as bad as last season's opener against Cal, but I have to go with the Midshipmen.

North Carolina vs. LSU: Ah, the game everyone's putting off writing about, because no one has any clue who will be starting for UNC. Austin's out, which is a blow, but an expected one. He's been practicing with the second team, while his backup, presumably Jordan Nix, has taken the first team reps. That's a drop of 25 pounds and two years of experience, but it's not deadly against an LSU offensive line that was UNC-level awful last season. If the Heels are going to succeed on the offensive side, however, it will probably be on the ground, the side of the offense not affected by scandal. This game is going to come down to whether UNC can regroup from whatever personnel they're denied for this game or LSU can overcome their own youth. It's the preseason, when my Carolina optimism runs rampant; I'm going to pick the Heels to win, tutors, suspensions, and the Curse of Chick-Fil-A aside.

I get a fair number of press releases in my inbox, most of which I promptly ignore. (Hey, gambling site that's e-mailing me daily, that means you. Stop.) But there was one today that seemed interesting. And not just because it asked me to "Please share this exciting news with your readers as many will probably be headed to the game this weekend!"

Really? Carolina fans are headed to the game? How come nobody told me? I totally would have tried to cadge a ride.

Anyway the exciting news is that Natrone Means will be fielding questions outside the stadiumfrom 5:30 to 6:30 in the Georgia World Congress Center, Building C, as part of an insurance-sponsored day of festivities prior to the game.

But wait! At the bottom of the e-mail, there's this:

The information in this e-mail, and any attachment therein, is confidential and for use by the addressee only. If you are not the intended recipient, please return the e-mail to the sender and delete it from your computer. Although the Company attempts to sweep e-mail and attachments for viruses, it does not guarantee that either are virus-free and accepts no liability for any damage sustained as a result of viruses.

So I am putting myself at grave legal risk to bring you this press release. That they want me to share. But don't, because it's for me only. I'm so confused.

More photos » Gerry Broome - AP

Austin will have plenty of time for chorus line practice, apparently.

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Butch Davis finally came out with the announcement UNC fans have been dreading for months – Marvin Austin has been suspended indefinitely. For what, you may ask? Not anything agent-related, and not for any tutor misconduct either. Take it away, Butch:

"This decision is not a result of the ongoing NCAA review," says Davis. "Marvin has violated team rules and has neglected his responsibilities to the team."

And it's at this point I just throw up my hands and give up. I understand not talking about the agent investigation while its ongoing; the NCAA doesn't allow it. And I approve of not talking about the academic investigation, as it too is ongoing, and being related to academics probably falls under a couple of state privacy laws. But a generic announcement of an indefinite suspension with no explanation more than "team rules" and "responsibilities" is just stupid. Austin did something wrong and is being punished; to not say what that misstep was is just fuel for baseless speculation and further puts the program under a cloud.

So let's engage in some baseless speculation, then. We can toss out the agent-scandal possibility, and Austin was still practicing with the second team and not the scout team before his suspension, so the tutor problems are right out. Something criminal would have been public information that would have been reported, so we're clear there. Quan Sturdivant's misdemeanor possession charge hasn't warranted a suspension, nor did Jared McAdoo's misdemeanor for possession of a BB gun. TE Rashad Mason was suspended indefinitely for, again, violating team rules – he later transferred to Alabama A&M, where he failed to become academically eligible – while Donte Paige-Moss got one game for getting into an altercation with a State player. (And no suspension for assaulting a fellow UNC player.)

If I had to guess then, the duration and the wording would point to problems in the classroom, unrelated to the tutor thing. Summer school ended back at the end of July, and classes just got underway last week, so I don't know how the timing works out, but if I was a betting man that's what I would go with. Although I wouldn't have to speculate at all if the athletic department was a little more forthcoming.

Edited to add: I forgot about Cooter Arnold, who was also suspended indefinitely around the same time of year in 2007, for reasons that were "partially because of academic issues," he later said. He returned after five games and went on to have his greatest moment be a 66-yard touchdown pass to Hakeem Nicks. So there may be a chance of Austin returning mid-season.

More photos » Michael Dwyer - AP

North Carolina's Marvin Austin (9) sacks Boston College quarterback Dave Shinskie (15) during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009, in Boston. North Carolina won 31-13.

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I'm surprisingly sympathetic to this view of Marvin Austin's weekend Facebook post of frustration, although it overstates its case. Austin has become the face of both the South-wide agent scandal and the tutor thing by virtue of everything being started with his tweets. It's worth pointing out though that reports have him still practicing with the second team, as opposed to the scout team currently playing host to those suspected of academic impropriety. Add to that the fact that every indication points to any improper benefits Austin received came from former teammate Kentwan Balmer, not an agent; while still possibly against the rules, it's much more of a gray area than a clear-cut case of right and wrong.

Austin has spent the summer subjected to a wave of accusation and speculation that he's facing suspension for months now, and not being able to defend himself has got to chafe. So while his comments are overly self-pitying, Austin is still fast becoming one of the more sympathetic people in this entire story. 

(UNC, of course, responded by updating their social networking policy. I pity the coaches assigned monitor duties.)

More photos » Ethan Hyman - AP

Davis is really, really good at the tight-lipped sad face.

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The world of sports journalism had no shortage of recrimination for Butch Davis yesterday, after Thursday's press conference announcing academic misconduct. Phrases like "tarnished legacy" and "lack of institutional control" were being thrown around, and until the full investigation is concluded, there's going to be a lot of that, and deservedly so. (There's also going to be a fair amount of hackwork, like this Dennis Dodd column, which ignored the actual facts of the case to make Mary Poppins and Nanny McPhee jokes, which I'm sure were right in the wheelhouse for a bunch of college football fans.)  I don't know what's exactly going on inside the program, and there could be large-scale malfeasance with regard to academic integrity, or it could be one idiot tutor that doesn't understand plagiarism.

The criticism I don't understand, but is popping up on a lot of message boards, is "This is how Davis was able to bring such a good defense to Chapel Hill." Don't forget, this was his first recruiting class. You really can't go into a job, set up ways to cheat, and then entice players to come there based on said cheating, all before ever taking the field. I'd be more suspicious if Davis had struggled for a few years and then started pulling in high-profile recruits. Generally folks don't start looking for ways around the rules until they've failed to succeed within them. That things have so quickly gone south may actually be one of the better arguments that's there's no institutional-wide problems.

Of course, if you'd prefer to just keep casting aspersions, here are a couple of articles on Austin's signing with UNC back in 2007. Given extensive credit is, of course, John Blake. To wit:

"He quoted Bible verses, spoke about how to invest money and knew I'd learn a lot about life and football. We have a father-son relationship," Austin said.

More photos » Gerry Broome - AP

North Carolina football coach Butch Davis responds to questions during NCAA media day in Chapel Hill, N.C., Thursday, Aug. 12, 2010.

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I'll admit it; after the news that's been coming out of Columbia this week, I was relieved that any rule-breaking in Chapel Hill seemed relatively contained. Well, that's not exactly the case.

At a rather sudden press conference tonight that many hoped would produce the final results of this investigation, Dick Baddour instead announced a second investigation has been started on campus, this one led by UNC, into academic improprieties that first came to light during the investigation into agent contact. Baddour and Chancellor Thorp announced their full support for Davis, which will be rather necessary, as the misconduct centers on an undergraduate tutor for the team who also served as an academic coach for Davis's son. The investigation is ongoing and probably won't be finished before the LSU game.

That's it for the official word. The unofficial words are running rampant, however. Joe Schad has sources saying nine players have been kicked to the scout team over this, including Marvin Austin, Robert Quinn, and Bruce Carter. Other rumors had two players already kicked off the team, although since that was not mentioned at the press conference, I'm not particularly inclined to believe it.

So where does this leave UNC fans? The wolves are going to be baying around this program for the near future, and it's almost certain that the defense is going to be significantly weaker for the LSU game. Expect the rumors to only intensify as word leaks out about who exactly is practicing where; other than that, we're all in the same boat we were last week, just with a bigger cloud of impending doom over our heads. I expect all violations will be dealt with harshly, mostly because of Chancellor Thorp, and otherwise to expect a pretty agonzing couple of months.

More photos » Jim Bounds - AP

9 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 4, 2008, file photo, North Carolina's Ryan Houston (32) carries with the ball during a NCAA college football football game against Connecticut in Chapel Hill, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 4, 2008. (AP Photo/Jim R. Bounds)

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By now, you've surely read three thousand previews of UNC's upcoming season, and they all pretty much play out the same way. The defense will be great, of a caliber with the championship teams of the last couple of years. The offense returns 10 starters from last year, when they were abysmal. They will continue to be abysmal. Carolina will be second or third in the Coastal Division, or something. And... scene.

Of course, if you sat through last season, you're pretty aware that the offense was a near perfect storm of misfortune. The offensive line was decimated by injuries, and didn't manage anything resembling passable until midway through the year. The running game too a couple of weeks to settle on a rotation, after which it promptly lost one of its primary backs for the season to a broken scapula. The passing targets were basically all freshmen, with the exception of converted running back Greg Little and the repeatedly-injured tight end Zach Pianalto, and Yates at quarterback was never going to scramble away from the collapsing O-line to compensate for their inexperience. The easy prediction is that things won't get much better because it's the same players out there, but there's almost certainly going to be more improvement than people think. So what's a reasonable expectation for the season?

Let's start with the running game. It wasn't until the end of the Connecticut game, when Sloop put the ball in the hands of Ryan Houston to grind his way to the winning score, that the Heels hit on their two-back rotation of him and Shaun Draughns. This scheme lasted six games, only to be cut short early in the Duke game with Draughn's injury. Those six games also coincided with three of the easiest defenses Carolina faced in ECU, Georgia Southern, and Florida State, which may weight the scales a little bit. (It also contains the two worst performances, against Georgia Tech and UVa. That line was awfully thin early on.) My original thought was to just look at the stats after the line found it's footing but before the injury took out Draughns, but that's just a three game stretch of GSU, FSU and VT; hardly a fair comparison. So let's look at everything after the Georgia Southern game through the end of the season. Over that 4-2 stretch, UNC averaged 39.7 carries a game for 163.7 yards. That would have been good enough for 4th in the ACC in yards per game and fifth in yards per carry – compare that to the 7th and 8th, respectively, they had for the whole season.

SO on the ground at least, UNC is capable of putting up respectable numbers. (And such a performance over the course of the season would probably have at least turned the UVa game into a win.) How about the passing game? At first glance, you can't really go back and compare T.J. Yates pre-injury performance, as having Brandon Tate, Hakeem Nicks and Brooks Foster as receivers will give you much better numbers than the current crop. For the record Yates threw for 2,655 yards with 14 touchdowns and 18 interceptions that season; last year his numbers were 2,136 yards, the same 14 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. It is interesting to compare the increase in passing yardage between the 2006 and 2007, however, when Hicks and Tate went from their first year of serious play to their second while the quarterback switched from Joe Dailey and Cam Sexton to Yates. 2007 brought an increase of almost 550 yards on 51 more attempts. Add an extra yard per completion and a two or three percentage points in completion rate to last year's performance, and you do come close to 2007's numbers. Remember Yates has improved some himself, if not nearly as much as fans would like. 2007's numbers would have been good for sixth in the ACC, for what's it worth.

In short, I think UNC's offense will improve more than a lot of people are thinking. Moving to the top half of the conference in yardage is pretty likely, although don't expect to see them topping any statistical scoring lists. But don't forget Carolina's greatest scoring threat – the defense. UNC had four touchdowns scored on interceptions, and a couple of fumbles returned as well. It's amazing how much a good defense can reduce the pressure on an offense, and allow them to rack up yards in garbage time when protecting a lead. They may just propel the Heels to the ACCC yet.

More photos » Wade Payne - AP

File photo of Tennessee practicing failure.

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I've been excited about the Carolina-Tennessee home-and-home games of 2011 and 2012 since they were first announced. This is the kind of rivalry we should be looking for, two flagship schools from states that share a border. It wasn't that long ago the Vols were after Butch Davis; sure with both teams looking to rebuild in 2011 it might not have been the best game, but it was a good start.

The operative word there is "was." Tennessee has looked at its schedule and decided it's better to fork over some cash rather than visit Chapel Hill. The upside is that UNC will probaby get a check in the range of a million dollars for the inconvenience of being replaced by Buffalo on the Volunteers' schedule. The downside is they'll be spending a bit of that themselves finding a twelfth game, and the replacement won't make for good football. A 1-AA team is probably the safest bet. And since the rest of the non-conference schedule consists of James Madison, Tennessee and East Carolina, well, look to see a repeat of last year's boring slate of games, actually.

On the plus side, Tennessee fans seem pretty annoyed about this, as they should be. Tennessee looks even weaker than they would have in a in-no-way-gauarnteed loss, especially since this game was set to follow a bye week. And frankly, Davis will probably be able to add something to his recruiting spiel like this tweet:

Still, it's a bummer to the Carolina fans and players who were looking forward to this game. Although come to think of it, Southern Cal was recently trying to score a 2011 opponent – are they still available. Come to think of it, the 2011 Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game remains unscheduled, and the group obviously doesn't have a problem scheduling teams back-to-back. Do the Heels have the fan base draw to play in Atlanta two years in a row? What's the best case scenario for UNC here?