ACC Football: What We'll Know After September
by T.H. on Aug 23, 2011 12:55 AM EDT
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PrintEven more than in years past, this football season, at least as far as the ACC is concerned, looks to be a complete mystery. There are too many new quarterbacks, new coaches, and new scandals to know how things are going to work out in advance. So, I've decided to preview the season not by predicting what will happen, but to lay out a timeline of when things happen. For the rest of this week, I'll put together what we can expect to know at any given point this fall, beginning with September.
September gives us four weeks of football, with 33 non-conference games and six conference matches. Maryland and Miami have byes the second week of the season, while Wake takes theirs in the fourth. Come the end of next month, here's what we'll have learned:
Whether the ACC Is a Laughingstock Again: 12 of the 13 games against FCS opponents – thank State for the humiliating 13th – are played in September, including the excruciating opening week when five of the six Coastal Division teams all play lesser foes. The ACC has lost to three FCS schools in the past two seasons, and had two close calls in 2008. In recent years the conference has consistently flopped right out of the gate.
If you're looking for teams to go down against FCS teams this season, a good place to start would be with Virginia and Duke, who are playing the same teams – William & Mary and Richmond, respectively – who beat them in 2009. Also in danger is North Carolina, unfortunately, facing the James Madison team that upset Virginia Tech last season in the opening week. It'll be the Heels first game of the post-Butch Davis era, and although I don't expect anything to go wrong, it's happened before.
Whether FSU Is a National Championship Contender: I think I only follow one Florida State fan on Twitter, but there must be an awful lot of retweets, because I get the impression the entire Seminole fan base is really high on this year's team. We'll find out how overoptimistic they are when FSU faces preseason #1 Oklahoma on September 17th. The Seminoles were taken to the woodshed by the Sooners last season, losing 47-17, so they're plenty motivated, but I don't see it doing much good. This year's game should be considerably closer, but OU is the current favorite to win the national championship, while FSU is still rebuilding. If that's not enough, they immediately follow this game with a conference challenge at Clemson. A pair of wins here, and we'll learn we seriously underestimated Jimbo Fisher.
If Wake Forest Has a Defense: Unlike a lot of other teams, Wake at least scheduled a decent start to the season. They start with a Thursday game against Syracuse followed by conference foe N.C. State the following week. (Then, a breather against Gardner-Webb.) Wake has a decent QB, and possibly the strongest healthy running back in the ACC; the question remains, can they defend against anyone? I'm optimistic; Wake should be able to win of the two and come out of their bye week with a winning record.
Will N.C. State Be Able to Survive Without Mustafa Greene: Already breaking in a new quarterback with scrambling sensation Russell Wilson sent packing, the Wolfpack now have to make it through September with out their star running back. They haven't settled on a replacement, and while the soft schedule start of Liberty, Wake, and South Alabama will give them time to break someone in, we'll still know if State is truly in trouble by the Wake and Cincinnati games. While they could still enter October at 4-0, they could also easily stumble.
How UNC Looks Under Everett Withers: The opening slate can hide some flaws, but we'll know enough to answer some questions. Is John Shoop just going to get crazier? Will Bryn Renner be able to perform under center? Can the running game, always a surprise, succeed with Ryan Houston doing the job full time, or will we see a lot of A.J. Blue? And will Carolina finally figure out the Georgia tech offense that so stymied Butch Davis? I think the Heels can make it through the month undefeated with the help of their schedule, but it's no sure thing. Between the Yellow Jackets and UVa, the Heels cn play themselves right out of the conference race if they're not careful.
Finally, it's worth keeping in mind what we won't know. Anything about Virginia tech, really, who won't be tested much during September. Boston College likewise will be a mystery, unless they fall on their face. And Clemson could easily lose tough games to Auburn and FSU and still be a contender or run the table and flop in October. We're only going to weed a couple of teams out this early; for the rest you have to wait until the moths ahead.
Predicted Record on September 31st:
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Great observations.
I really think FSU & Va Tech are key to the nations perception of the ACC.
If FSU can slip by OU, we could see a big ACCCG matchup b/w 2 undefeated teams, as VT has an embarrassingly easy schedule.
Miami was key as well. That dream is dead. They’re done. 10 years minimum.
And yes…FSU fans are high on the 2011 Noles, mostly due to some serious upgrades defensively. OU was fortunate in getting FSU mere weeks after trying to install a new zone D after years of Mickey Andres famous man/pressure D. That game was only going to have one outcome. Ponder getting jacked up didnt help.
I fully expect a highly competitive game. Within a TD.
Enjoyed it.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
"FSU is still rebuilding"
That is hands down the dumbest thing I’ll read this week about CFB. When did returning 18 starters and having 2-3 times the talent of any other team in the conference become a “rebuilding year?”
Here’s one thing we already know for sure without seeing the month of September:
UNC is done. Their fleeting glimpse at CFB relavence has ended in a shameful display of academic fraud, pay-for-play, and total lack of control and oversight. I dont follow a single UNC football fan on twitter and truthfully I’ve never met one. Rest assured that UNC’s rapid descent into an also-ran will insure that fact probably never changes. Enjoy going 4-8.
by Widespread Seminole on Aug 23, 2011 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This fake outrage is absolutely HILARIOUS coming from holier-than-thou FSU fan.
Free Shoes University, anybody? Victories revoked because a large group of students (including FSU football players) had people take their exams (or something of that nature)?
Enjoy getting curb stomped on national television by Oklahoma, troll.
Widespreads UNC comments are un called for, however comparing the footlocker insident (3 students 1 time)
and a grossly overexagerated acedemic issue (3 students did the “take their exams for them” thing, the rest was basically an outdated test) to hiring an agent runner as an assistant coach is proposterous.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Which?
I think I see the problem here SJ—you need to say which isolated, one-time, shoe-related incident you are referencing here. Was it the Foot Locker one, which was only between 3 to 9 players, depending on who you believe? Or the Warrick-Coles petty theft of shoes and clothes at Dillards? Or Spurrier’s unsubstantiated comments that FSU student-athletes always seem well-heeled? Or perhaps you’re a youngster and remember only the cheating issue based on an outdated test that practically invited cheating?
Though to the “rebuilding” point, I’d expect that FSU fans would agree with TH’s sentiment that FSU isn’t yet where they want to be—a single 10-4 season is great, but Beamer has an active string of a half dozen or more 10-win seasons, and Bowden had his huge string of top 5 finishes (season-ending finishes, not season-starting ones). Maybe Jimbo is on the brink of greatness; it certainly seems there are a lot of pieces in place. But with a new-ish QB and a bunch of good-but-not-great RBs, there are still questions to be answered and greatness to be achieved.
I only remember the Peter Warrick petty theft and the widespread cheating scandal that included several FSU FB players.
Here’s my point: Yes, UNC is under the gun for several major violations that happened under Butch’s watch. Yes, we are going to get smacked down by the NCAA and it’s goning to set the program back several years. However, nobody is clean enough in this endeavor of major college sports to start lecturing about such bullshit like ‘shameful display’ (which doesn’t include pay-for-play, FWIW) unless we’re talking about SMU/Baylor/Miami levels of seediness.
And you can easily say that FSU is rebuilding as a national program. The game with OU will be an interesting barometer as to how far FSU has come and needs to go.
I think the ACC can come to prominence without a successful Miami — it will just take another school having sustained success over eight years or so, not unlike Virginia Tech for the last decade. Having that team be Miami would accelerate that process, but that’s no longer in the cards.
I don’t think the conference will get any respect if both Florida teams struggle. It would be like the basketball side if both UNC and Duke cratered.
When
the conference Win total after September in your prediction (6) doesn’t match the Loss total (5) we are forced to consider the analysis. “inexpert.”
:-)
I will add, “Yes, you have seriously underestimated Jimbo Fisher,” saying it now because, as Jimbo (channeling Saban) has taught most of us, Process is more important than Outcome, We may win or lose vs OU. Same for Clemson or Miami or BC. Results this year will be only mildly correlated with what is happening at FSU, to wit: We are Bigger, Stronger, Deeper. More Talented, Better Fed, More Disciplined and Better Coached than at any time in the previous ten years. All of these claims can be supported with data if not “proven.” This is ongoing and getting better by the moment. It has an inevitability about it and eventually, if not 2011, the results will prove the process successful.
Dogs bark in the night but the caravan moves on.
I'd like to see the data that says that FSU players are "Better Fed."
I like most of the predictions here, except for two things.
1) I don’t see Wake beating NCSU. Maybe Syracuse, but they have no shot against even a Wilson-less Wolfpack team.
2) There is no way that Ga. Tech is going to start the season any worse than 3-1. I know they lost to Kansas last year, but that was an anomaly that won’t occur two seasons in a row.
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