Elliot Williams Is Not Your Savior
by T.H. on Feb 24, 2009 12:07 AM EST
in Basketball
9 comments
Mark Schlabach sees a resurgence at Duke, where others may just see victories over one team that won't make its own conference tournament and another that was .500 over its last eight games. That resurgence has a name, and that name is Elliot Williams. Williams, you see, had four steals and a perimeter defense that held Jeff Teague to a mere twenty-eight points. Or, as Rush the Court put it, "So Jeff Teague having his way with you is a credential for good point guard play."
But what really irritated me was the last paragraph:
Much to the surprise of Gaudio, the Blue Devils beat the Demon Deacons at their own game. By using a quicker lineup (junior center Brian Zoubek, who started 17 of Duke's first 20 games, never even left the bench) and a bigger point guard, Duke was able to take away many of Wake Forest's biggest strengths. The Demon Deacons' superior post players never became much of a factor because they couldn't keep up with the frenetic pace on the floor, and Teague and Smith struggled to defend taller players.
They measure the pace of games, now. The Duke-Wake match had 73 possessions, which is one of the lowest totals for the Deacons this season. Wake had 89 possessions against UNC, and the big men kept up just fine. Wake has been dialing back their big men's playing time for weeks now, going with smaller, quicker lineups. The Deacons were taken down by Duke's superior shooting and their myriad of turnovers, as well as a spate of fouls once they cut the lead to two with seven minutes to play. (In fact, eight of the Blue Devils next ten points came from the line.) So don't lay everything at the (extensively moving) feet of Williams just yet; wait and see how the last four games play out.
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i saw the title
of schlabach’s article, and i just moved on.
He is not the most intelligent writer at ESPN’s college basketball department.
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Feb 24, 2009 10:58 AM EST reply actions
It's right actually...kind of...not that we needed saving.
He should have worded it different. Elliot is no savior, but he is in fact an upgrade. This might also be addition by subtraction since him being in usually puts Zoubek on the bench…but that for another time.
The truth is:
Paulus can’t keep up with his own shadow. You saw that first hand as Lawson destroyed us. Not only that, but every time Paulus touches the ball this season, he is just itching to launch a three…not allowing our true scorers to get as involved while he is out there, and more often than not, leading to long rebounds that quickly go the other way. I feel bad for him since he gave up his football shot for this…but he needs to be permanently done at Duke NOW.
Nolan Smith is an upgrade over Paulus defensively (so would you or I be) but he hasn’t emerged as a safe ball handler. He often gets ahead of himself and it leads to immature mistakes. He has the talent, but he needs more time (in practice—not games) to develop. He makes lazy passes, and just doesn’t see defenders too often. He/this is the reason we got destroyed by Clemson’s press.
Elliot Williams is just as good of a defender as Smith, and actually more versatile on who he can play. Fact is he wasn’t matched up on Teague for most of that game…so you can’t say he gave up 28 points. I am not going to pretend he is a magically gifted defender just because Wake Forest kept inbounzing the ball to him repeatedly either, but he does have quick hands, and has proved disruptive. That’s all we need.
The true upgrade comes on the offensive end, where Elliot being in the game means Scheyer brings the ball up (SAFELY!) and gets us into a controlled offensive set. Elliot is younger than Smith, but his basketball IQ is much more mature. His midrange game, and ability on the wing makes this new 5 a great lineup for Duke. Elliot takes what the D gives him, and does what we need him to do…which most of the time is just stay out of the way of Henderson, Scheyer, and Singler. Does that make him a savior…I definitely wouldn’t call him that. Are we an improved squad with him on the floor? Definitely we are. Can we beat any given team on any given night with him in the lineup? Yes. Can we also still lose to any team on any given night? Anytime that any 2 of our big 3 scorers are off. We need 2 of the 3 to show up every game or it is ugly.
Bottom line, Elliot is an upgrade, and we were already a top 10 team capable of playing with anyone. How big of an upgrade is still TBD. See you later this season.
Go Hawks!
You know, I almost made the point that just having Zoubek off the court is a boost for Duke, but figured he had to bring something to the table. I hadn’t thought to compare Williams to Smith directly, as Smith was the guy being raved about preseason, and his playing time is sporadic enough I couldn’t tell if he was losing time to the new kid. That – and shifting Scheyer from bench guy to primary ballhandler – might be a better way of looking at it than Schlabach’s take. The rest of the schedule, which is close to brutal for you guys, will tell.
Didn’t realize Paulus’s play had become so irritating for Duke fans.
From ACCsports.com
“With Williams inserted into Duke’s starting five, all of whom stand between 6’4" and 6’8", the coach who has never liked to define positions has achieved his nirvana, a virtually position-less team. So far, so good. The Blue Devils bent but did not break against Wake’s longer and stronger front line. Scheyer has committed only one turnover in two games since becoming the team’s primary ballhandler. And most of the time, the rookie isn’t playing like one.”
This is the truth behind Duke’s (very) recent re-imurgence.
Go Hawks!
Duke continues to baffle me in 2009...
First off, their pace is, from season to season, very inconsistent.
Duke Possessions/Game, 2004-2009
04: 69.7
05: 69
06: 71.5
07: 65.9
08: 73
09: 68.6
They’ve ranged from as low as 203rd in the nation in pace to as high as 16th. For a reference point, UNC has been consistently in the top 15 during that same time period. That just strikes me as rather odd, as most coaches have a certain pace they’re comfortable with and stay there. I don’t know what to think really, though it makes me think that K is trying to figure out what he wants to do offensively.
Second, why does Zoubek sit on the bench? His offensive efficiency is higher than anyone else on the team, he’s the best rebounder they have, and he is a decent shot blocker. It’s not as though Duke is playing a run-and-gun style offense in which a slower guy is a liability – they’re barely in the top 100 in pace this year. K doesn’t really have a glut of great guards that would make a 3G/2F lineup optimal, so trading one of them out for all 7’1" of Zoooooobs seems to me like it could help them.
Third, Duke isn’t really a great three point shooting team, and despite that is very reliant on the three to score. That just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense in my book. Nobody on the team is better than 37% from outside – UNC has four shooting at 38% or better.
Finally, why the hell did Paulus get back in the starting lineup? It’s clear that, as a defender, he’s very limited. Sure, he’ll snag a few errant passes now and then, but he isn’t quick enough to stick with fast guards in the ACC and other top conferences.
by BraveBronco0121 on Feb 24, 2009 8:52 PM EST reply actions
I don't know...but Zoubek sucks.
The change of pace is not something I can really explain. I guess as a Duke fan I just assume it is Coach K doing what he feels is best for the personel we have. I mean…for a number of those years, JJ Redick running around screens for 10 minutes each possession was the offense. Then he put in the D’Antoni/Pheonix/Olympic spread offense…I think it could be looked at just as easily as an advantage. Most coaches have a certain pace they are comfortable with… Coach K is comfortable adapting to the players and trying to optimize what he’s got.
2nd – Zoubek sucks. He is 7’1" Whoopty Frickin’ Doo. 80% of the time he gets the ball it is a clumsy, terrifying debacle. His speed isn’t a liability as much as his failure to clear out for Henderson and the scorers to penetrate off the wings. He clogs everything up too much. On defense most of his shot blocking is negated by his terrible fouls that lead to And 1 after And 1. He doesn’t rebound that much better than Lance if at all. In fact he often looks timid and weak against other bigs. The much more mobile Lance Thomas has been far more impressive lately, and even the Frosh Plumlee. I think Coach K got so tired about hearing about the lack of size for the last few years and he tried to stick with it as long as he could…Zoubek just isn’t the right guy for the big man project. I’m looking forward to some of the recruits, Kelly and Plumlee2 next year, they are big and still mobile.
I know the stats agree with you on the three pointers, but I love bombing away on teams. It spreads out the defense. Is a wide open three really a much worse shot than a turnaround midrange or floating runner? Duke seems to try to get most of them from the corners too…the most efficient shot in the game. I say keep opening it up and spreading it out. It gives G, Scheyer and Singler more room to operate when they swing it around and get the right matchup to exploit.
I agree with you 100% about Paulus. It’s too bad really. I had high hopes after his Freshman year. I do like the Wojo-esque intensity he brings…the quarterback attitude…but he runs like he’s in full pads, and he is just flat overmatched at times. Now I feel like when he gets in, he is forcing it, trying to prove he needs more PT…it isn’t working. He should use his remaining eligibility on the gridiron to try to salvage an athletic future. He is still useful if we are playing teams with a slow point guard he can guard, or if we need to ice a lead with ball handling and free throws…and we could have worse backups in case of foul trouble…but he should never start again.
Go Hawks!
I'm not convinced that Zoubek is as bad as you think...
he’s far from an elite player, but I don’t think he’s a bad one. I still think the lineup doesn’t make much sense – simply put, a team needs a big man in the rotation, especially when they don’t have excellent guard play. Duke is, for all intents and purposes, playing without a post man or a true point guard. That, to me, isn’t a recipe for beating the top teams in the nation. Maybe I’m too old-school there (something I’m rarely accused of) but the small lineups never really struck me as ideal.
As for the threes, that’s an interesting take. It’s fun to watch when it works – UNC’s home game vs. Maryland this year was a riot – but when it doesn’t I just don’t see another option for Duke. If I had to guess, the reliance on the 3 ball is probably a function of the big-less lineups.
by BraveBronco0121 on Feb 25, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
Hey!
Posting action here…I LOVE it!
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Feb 25, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Dead On
As a Deacon fan I think the fact that the Dookies are worshiping at the moon-walking feet of Elliot Williams is absolutely hilarious. You absolutely nailed it. Now if you could just get me unbanned from IC…
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