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UNC Football Better in Polls That Don't Know Who UNC Is

With the win over Boston College, Carolina has cracked both the AP Poll and the BCS standings, at 23rd and 24th respectively. Of course, the BCS Standings are useless at this level (in fact, they only officially go to 15, news outlets just extrapolate from there, I believe) but that doesn't mean there's nothing to learn from them. I've long enjoyed comparing computer polls to the voters, and this year two teams jumped out in their relation to the Tar Heels.

2009poll_medium

The computer averages cluster Penn State, UNC, and Clemson at roughly the same spot, at 18th (where they're tied with Oregon), 20th, and 22nd. In three of the polls, UNC is actually ahead of the other two schools; the other three give Penn State the nod. The end result, of course, is pretty close to a wash as computers go.

And yet, Penn State is a favorite to get a BCS at-large bid, and the Heels will be the fourth or fifth team picked in the ACC. This is because the human voters, who know Carolina is a "basketball school," and Penn State a "football school," rank the Nittany Lions 11th, while UNC 24th and 26th (!). The human voters also find the Tigers better (at 16th and 17th) but that's a function of them being atop the Atlantic Division and headed to Tampa. You can make the argument their losses are better than the Heels anyway. But Clemson's only getting two a BCS bowl by automatic bid. 

If Penn State slips into one of the big bowls at the expense of Boise State (6th in votes, 7th in computers), I don't think even Ari Fleischer can spin them out of this. 

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Boise State

TH, I’ve seen your argument about Boise State deserving a bid but I don’t think that’s true. They’ve got a case to make, albeit a tiny one, for being barred from the title game but other than that they’ve got no leg to stand on. I wrote a piece at my site about why but to summerize; the 4 BCS Bowls (excluding the NCG) are in it to present the best, most entertaining game to fans, patrons and sponsors. Obviously the Rose lives off Pac10 Big10. The other games need max revenue dollars to offset the $17million payout. Like it or not Boise doesn’t offset that the way Okie State, Iowa, Penn State or possibly GT will in the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.

Fair? In a way no. But I also don’t think its fair that a bowl be made to feel guilty for putting on a game more people in America would to watch. Fact is little guys and “non-traditional powers” (Kansas, Utah, BSU) don’t do numbers and don’t sell out venues.

ItsFELDER

by MichaelFelder on Nov 25, 2009 11:42 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

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